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Archive for the ‘Fallacy’ Tag

6 Figures at 28, Leveraged portfolios & causation @ The RoundUp

Saturday, 14 November 2009, 5:39 | Economics | 0 Comment
by Numan

The better posts from fellow bloggers this past week include: The Financial Fallacy of Patterns, Causation & Correlation @ The Financial Philosopher Great post. The problem with patterns runs even deeper. Even if a pattern has been spotted it says nothing as to the related causality. Correlation is the bane of many of the social […]

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Long Term Investments Are Not Risk Free: The Fallacy of Large Numbers and the Past Decade in Us Stock Markets

Monday, 31 March 2008, 11:56 | Economics, Investing | 0 Comment
by Numan

The S&P500 closed yesterday at 1,315.22 points. The first time the S&P500 stood at this level was April 1999. This past decade in the US stock markets has been a long-term investor’s nightmare. I’m referring mostly to retirement savings and households of course. The following chart is of the S&P500 index since 1999: The rule ...

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