The impact of the recent sub-prime credit and housing crisis has left a relatively moderate impact on US economy. Pressures on home prices carries on as S&P/Case-Shiller U.S national home price index posts a record annual decline in the 2ND quarter of 2007.
According to a recent article by the NY Times fears of recession are growing as the decline of home prices lowers personal consumption expenditures due to a weak market for mortgages. However the global economic environment enables growth of export and a decline in unemployment rates accompanied by a growth in real hourly earnings.
According to Goldman-Sachs analysts quoted by the NY Times chances of a recession are approximately at 33%. You be the judge.